In an era when ādeaths of despairā ā from substance abuse and suicide ā are on the rise among middle-aged Americans, those who reach age 65 are living longer than ever.
But thereās a catch: Seniors in urban areas and on the coasts are surviving longer than their counterparts in rural areas and the nationās interior, according to an from Samuel Preston of the University of Pennsylvania, one of the nationās leading demographers.
This troubling geographic gap in life expectancy for older Americans has been widening since 2000, according to his research, which highlights growing inequality in later life.
Notably, 65-year-olds in ārural areas have had much smaller improvements than those in large metro areas,ā Preston remarked. āAnd people living in āinteriorā regions ā particularly Appalachia and the East South Central region [Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi and Tennessee] ā have done worse than those on the coasts.ā
These geographic differences emerged around 1999-2000 and widened from 2000 to 2016, the study found. By the end of this period, life expectancy at age 65 for women in large metropolitan areas was 1.63 years longer than for those in rural areas. For men, the gap was 1.42 years.
Differences were even starker when 65-year-olds who live in metro areas in the Pacific region (the group with the best results) were compared with their rural counterparts in the East South Central region (the group with the worst results). By 2016, seniors in the first group lived almost four years longer. (The Pacific region includes Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington.)
āAreas with the highest life expectancies at age 65 have realized more significant improvements between 2000 and 2016, while areas with the lowest life expectancies have gained the least,ā said Yana Vierboom, a co-author of the new study and a postdoctoral researcher at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Germany.
Disparities were also highlighted when researchers examined life expectancy at 65 in the U.S. and 16 other developed nations, using 2016 data. Overall, the U.S. was near the bottom of the pack: American men ranked 11th while American women were in 13th place, behind leaders such as Japan, Switzerland, Australia, France, Spain and Canada.
But when only 65-year-old American men living in Pacific region metro areas were considered, they topped all other countries, with an added life expectancy of 20.03 years. Women from this advantaged group also jumped in the rankings to the No. 4 position, with a life expectancy of 22.79 additional years.
Pockets of this country āhave a life expectancy at 65, which is on parā with that of leading countries, Jennifer Karas Montez, a professor of sociology at Syracuse University, wrote in an email. āWe need to figure out what those places are doing right and then take those lessons and apply them to other parts of the country that are doing poorly.ā
What distinguishes areas that are doing well from those that arenāt?
According to the new study, the most important factor is a reduction in deaths from cardiovascular illnesses, such as heart attacks and strokes ā the biggest killer in America.
āItās likely that medical treatments for cardiovascular disease have disseminated more rapidly in large metro areas than in rural areas,ā which have fewer specialist physicians and hospitals, Preston said.
The second-most important factor, especially for women, was smoking, a contributor to cardiovascular disease, lung cancer and respiratory diseases.
āThere are large differences in smoking rates across the country,ā with more women in the South and rural areas taking up smoking and more women in metro areas whoāve given up the habit, Vierboom said.
While the analysis that Preston and Vierboom conducted didnāt examine race, income or education, itās certain that these factors play a part in its findings.
āGeographic differentiation isnāt random: People who are poor, or who smoke or who are obese tend to be concentrated in certain places,ā said Eileen Crimmins, AARP professor of gerontology at the University of Southern California.
Meanwhile, the culture of different areas ā what people see others around them doing, the habits they adopt ā tends to perpetuate these differences over time.
While enormous attention has been paid to ādeaths of despairā in the younger and middle-aged population, the āreal actionā regarding mortality is with the 65-and-older population, Crimmins said. Of nearly 3 million people who die each year in the U.S., almost three-quarters are age 65 or older.
Deaths from opioids, alcohol or suicide arenāt significant in the older population; instead, deaths from chronic illnesses, which take years to develop and which are influenced by social conditions as well as personal behaviors, are far more important, Preston noted.
This helps explain another notable trend spotlighted in his new research: Life expectancy at age 65 has steadily increased, even in an era when ādeaths of despairā have been on the rise.
The long-term trend is upward. , a 65-year-old could expect to live an additional 13.9 years, on average (15 more years for women, 12 for men). A half-century later, in 2000, life expectancy at age 65 had climbed to 17.6 additional years (19 for women, 16 for men). , it increased again, adding 19.5 years (20.7 for women, 18.1 for men).
This positive trend has persisted even as due to drug and alcohol abuse, suicide and chronic conditions, such as hypertension and diabetes, rose for middle-aged adults over the past decade. With this surge in midlife deaths, overall life expectancy (starting at birth) in the U.S. declined from 2014 to 2017, followed by a slight uptick in 2018.
āIām struck by how well older adults are doing because it contrasts with whatās happening at midlife,ā said Anna Zajacova, an associate professor of sociology and a population health expert at the University of Western Ontario.
Why have older adults seen consistent life expectancy gains?
Much credit undoubtedly goes to medical advances and to Medicare, which extended health insurance coverage to all older Americans (age 65 and up) in 1966, improving access to care, said Scott Lynch, a sociology professor at Duke University and training director of Dukeās Population Research Institute. By contrast, tens of millions of younger and middle-aged adults are uninsured or underinsured.
Also, Social Security probably makes a difference by providing a minimum income ā albeit one that hasnāt kept up with rising costs ā for most older Americans.
āThank the Lord for social insurance programs above age 65,ā David Cutler, a professor of applied economics at Harvard University, wrote in an email, while acknowledging that experts havenāt yet come up with definitive explanations for mortality trends in the older population.
But whether life expectancy trends at age 65 will remain on an upward trajectory is an open question.
In particular, āitās yet to be determined what impact the explosion of obesity among prime-age adults will have when this population passes age 65,ā said Timothy Waidmann, an economist and senior fellow at the Urban Institute. āMy guess is it wonāt be good. But thatās a story yet to be seen.ā
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