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As of this week, more than 208,000 people are projected to die of COVID-19 in the U.S. by November. That supersedes an earlier forecast of more than 179,000 deaths by October. Both of those projections were made by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), which I oversee. Since the White House coronavirus task force began releasing our forecasts in late March, we’ve received a great deal of attention — not all of it good, since many people do not understand how modeling works. Over the last few months, our projections have risen, fallen and risen again. (Christopher J.L. Murray, 7/10)

Coronavirus deaths in the United States recently climbed above 133,000, at the same time that other countries have found ways to keep the virus in check. In a country that prides itself on being the best, it seems prudent to examine the reasons why. Below you will find some countries that have recorded staggeringly few deaths. Sure, not every country tracks coronavirus cases the same way as the United States. But there are some things to learn from these countries, many of which have recorded coronavirus deaths in the single digits. (7/10)

Fighting COVID-19 has been hard enough, but fighting the state for a straight answer on numbers to gauge the past and current spike of new cases has been utterly exhausting. Floridians deserve better. The latest battle is getting Gov. DeSantis’ office to release complete daily hospitalization data for all 67 counties. It’s amazing that this is not routine already. Other elected officials have made their numbers public. In April, Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez ordered hospitals in the county to report daily patient admissions, ICU capacity and ventilator inventory. (7/10)

The coronavirus pandemic has been a stark reminder "that things can change in a minute — and so you've got to be prepared," says Sunita Puri, medical director for palliative care at the Keck Medical Center at the University of Southern California. One of the ways to do this is to decide what sorts of treatments you would want (or not want) in the case you became critically ill — and then document those wishes and share them with loved ones. (Katherine Harmon Courage, 7/9)

Over the last several weeks, the number of people testing positive for COVID-19 at San Quentin State Prison has skyrocketed to more than 1,400, including six deaths so far. As a staff physician who provides medical care to incarcerated patients, I am devastated by the news, but sadly, I’m not surprised. On a daily basis, our medical teams work diligently within the constraints of the prison system to limit transmission, and our patients do what they can to protect themselves in their environment, but the undeniable fact is that the state prisons are well over capacity — despite court-mandated reductions over the past several years. (Joshua Connor, 7/8)

I don’t know about you, but I’m feeling more and more as if we’re all trapped on the Titanic — except that this time around the captain is a madman who insists on steering straight for the iceberg. And his crew is too cowardly to contradict him, let alone mutiny to save the passengers. A month ago it was still possible to hope that the push by Donald Trump and the Trumpist governors of Sunbelt states to relax social distancing and reopen businesses like restaurants and bars — even though we met none of the criteria for doing so safely — wouldn’t have completely catastrophic results. At this point, however, it’s clear that everything the experts warned was likely to happen, is happening. (Paul Krugman, 7/9)

As the world struggles to confront the Covid-19 pandemic, how to handle access to trade secrets — information that is valuable because others do not know it — is one of the myriad challenges to achieving safe and effective vaccines, diagnostics, and treatments for the people of the world. The most famous trade secret is the Coca-Cola formula. If someone accessed that formula who wasn’t supposed to, a misappropriation lawsuit from Coca-Cola would soon follow. While a scenario like that may seem foreign to the Covid-19 pandemic, trade secrecy spans a shockingly broad range of critical and lifesaving information. (David S. Levine, 7/10)

Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez has been making the rounds on national television for all the wrong reasons.No, it’s not a-star-is-born kind of story. The mayor has botched the county’s entry into the coronavirus “new normal,” buckling under political and public pressure to open too soon — and doing so without the proper enforcement of safety rules in place. (Fabiola Santiago, 7/10)

One moment in Texas’ battle against this ravenous pandemic signaled whether Gov. Greg Abbott would lead as the state’s top executive or a top political boss. Back in May, Abbott made the fateful decision to side with Dallas hair salon owner Shelley Luther instead of local leaders in major cities across the state such as Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo. That choice, to embrace partisan politics and a fringe populist backlash over common sense and sound medical advice from his own advisers, condemned the Lone Star State to the circumstances we face today: Hospitals near the breaking point. Nearly 3,000 Texans dead — and counting. (7/10)